Is solar
power "the fuel of the future"? Elon Musk thinks so.
The
co-inventor of PayPal, now turned alternative energy rock star, has built two
companies -- solar power utility SolarCity (SCTY) and electric car company
Tesla (TSLA) -- around the idea that solar-generated electricity is the way to
power our cars and save our environment. He's also working on a third company
-- SpaceX -- which aims to bring mankind a bit closer to that ultimate
clean-energy source, the sun.
But is solar
power truly the solution to our energy needs? Not necessarily.
Last month,
alternative energy analyst Gordon Johnson at Axiom Capital crunched the latest
numbers out of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and published a
report on his findings.
The upshot:
When it comes to "alternative" ways to generate electricity, solar
energy is just about the most expensive form of energy you can get.
Calculating
the cost of generating a kilowatt hour of electricity by tallying the cost of
building a facility, operating it, and paying for the fuel it consumes -- then
amortizing all this across all the electricity it's expected to produce in its
lifetime -- Johnson points out that solar photovoltaic power costs about 22
cents a kwh. Solar thermal power, where sunbeams are reflected and concentrated
on a heat-retaining medium such as salt or graphite to store heat for later use
in generating electricity, costs even more -- about 32 cents a kwh.
What forms
of energy are cheaper than these? Pretty much any that you might think of.
Electricity
generated by running water through a dam's turbines costs about 9 cents a kwh
generated. That's less than half the cost of electricity generated from
"ordinary" solar panels. More than three times less than solar
thermal power. And hydropower may be even cheaper than what the EIA says it is.
The Hoover
Dam, for example, is said to wholesale the electricity it generates for as
little as 1.6 cents a kwh -- about a penny-and-a-half.
Say what you will about the downsides of wind power -- that windmills kill
birds and bats, that they allegedly induce headaches in their neighbors -- one
thing's for sure: Wind power is a whole lot cheaper than solar.
EIA estimates say that amortized over their lifetime, windmills generate
electricity for a cost of just 10 cents a kwh on average -- on par with hydro,
and far cheaper than solar.
Across the ocean, the European Wind Energy Association claims that some of
its member projects are generating electricity at a cost of as little as 5
cents a kwh.
Geothermal
There's also geothermal energy -- which uses the differential between
near-constant temperatures below-ground and temperatures up here to create
energy.
Because geothermal energy equipment is of necessity buried, it costs a bit
more to maintain it. But total costs tend to average around 10 cents a kwh --
similar to wind, and not much more than hydro. But again, a heck of a lot
cheaper than solar. Indeed, at the Geysers power plant in California,
geothermal energy is sold for as little as 3 cents a kwh.
Nuclear
Seeing as the nuclear power plants been around since the 1950s, you may
not think of nuclear power as being particularly "alternative." But
it doesn't produce greenhouse gases, and it does produce electricity.
And at just 11 cents a kwh to pay for electrons generated by the latest
generation of nuclear reactors, it's definitely in the hunt to underprice
solar. In France, where they do nuclear power at scale, utility company
Electricite de France sells nuclear-generated electricity for about 5 cents a
kwh.
Coal
Perhaps the most "alternative" of energies -- in the sense that
it's so counterintuitive that you'd never think of it as alternative -- is
coal. More specifically, coal burned in high-tech facilities that scrub out the
pollutants, known by the seeming oxymoron "clean coal."
According to the EIA, if you take all the cost of creating a real clean
coal industry with the latest scrubbing equipment factored in, then add the
cost of developing technology to sequester carbon emissions and inject them
deep underground so they can't leak back out, plus the cost of the coal itself
... you're still likely to come up with an average cost that's about 59 percent
that of solar -- 13 cents a kwh.
But... Solar Power's
Going to Get Cheaper, Right?
So solar power is more expensive than all these other forms of alternative
energy. But here's the worst part: Solar enthusiasts argue that as their
industry gains scale, and the cost of producing solar panels falls, solar will
become more cost-competitive with other forms of energy -- and that's simply
not true.
Solar panel costs fell 53 percent in 2012. But the module cost makes up
only about 33 percent of the total cost of building, operating, and maintaining
a solar plant.
Panel mountings, solar power inverters, transmission cables, and more
mundane costs such as paying the construction workers and buying or leasing
land -- these all cost money too, and aren't subject to cheapening through
scale.
Result: Falling module prices don't necessarily make solar plants cheaper
to operate.
Long story short: You can have your solar power if you want it. But do
expect to pay through the nose for it -- because the EIA's numbers don't lie,
and solar power doesn't come cheap.
Motley Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any solar or
electric car company named above. (Go figure.) But The Motley Fool recommends
and owns shares of Tesla Motors.
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